Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Question

In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel. It must:

Be at least 60,000 words.

Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.

Not have obvious continuity errors.

Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction. (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine. The prompts just can't be providing any help or suggestions.)

It does not have to be "good" in a literary sense.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (70 traders, as of Oct 12, 2026).