US military expenditure tops all-time high by 2026?

Question

https://ourworldindata.org/military-spending

2010 was the year with the highest total US military spending so far. This market resolves to yes if Our World in Data (or a suitable replacement if it stops being a reliable source) shows the military spending of 2025 or 2026 to be above the 2010 total, adjusted for inflation. If they're all lower (or the US is no longer a country at that point), this resolves to no. If that data becomes completely unavailable, this resolves to N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (13 traders, as of May 31, 2026).