Isaac King's Guessing Game

Question

Here's how this works:

Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

If I don't want to answer the question, I'll resolve the option to N/A. (I'm generally pretty open about stuff.)

Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and to PROB if it was partly right and partly wrong.

Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. I won't bet on the options before resolving then.

I will generally wait for several people to trade in an option before resolving it.

This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

Thanks to @firstuserhere for this market idea. You can find their original market here.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere is most likely. See the market for live updates (29 traders, as of Aug 15, 2025).