Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Question

https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/1812w04/comment/kabk73s/

Resolves based on whether it seems this general impression is correct, even if it gets a few minor details wrong.

Notably, this account claims that the board's decision was a reasonable tactical decision  (at least by Helen, Tasha, and Adam), and that they accomplished their objectives and walked away as their main winners here. This contrasts with most other perceptions, which have the board as well-meaning but incompetent, having failed to prevent Sam's consolidation of power.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (18 traders, as of Mar 12, 2024).