If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Question

Uses the same definition of "competitor" as in this market.

For clarity, the specific comparison is "is the competitor as successful two years after its launch as Manifold was two years after its own launch?". I'm checking success at the two year point, not beforehand, so if the competitor quickly becomes more popular than Manifold but then loses that popularity before two years have passed, its brief moment in the sun won't count in its favor.

If multiple competitors are launched, this market is about the first one. (I'll make a separate market for the second.)

I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (25 traders, as of Feb 28, 2025).