If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Question

Inspired by https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-offered-people-10000-to-take-off

If this market gets enough interest or I otherwise gain at least $20 of motivation, I may choose to do this on a future flight. (I fly several times a month.) This market resolves if/when I do that, based on the result.

I won't make the offer to anyone for whom I have significant additional information about their masking preferences past the simple fact that they're wearing one. (e.g. I won't ask someone who has expressed a verbal opinion to me about whether they'd accept, or is wearing a shirt with some statement about the importance of masking on it.)

I'll offer no later than halfway through the flight.

My offer will be phrased along the lines of "I have a weird experiment that some aquaintances and I are trying to resolve. No problem if you don't want to accept, I know this is strange, it's just an offer that you can accept or decline as you wish." No substantive political or scientific claims will be made unless they ask for further information, and I'll try to avoid implying that I'd prefer a certain outcome.

The "end of the flight" for the purposes of this market is defined as the moment the plane touches down on the ground.

I'll give them the $20 as soon as they accept and take off their mask. (I don't want them to have to worry I'm going to renege on the offer once we land.) If they put it back on after I give them the $20, I'll try to get my $20 back and this market will resolve NO. (Unless they only put it back on shortly before we land, in which case I'll be lenient and still let that count.)

To let traders have more fun, if I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market. (Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (71 traders, as of Jan 12, 2025).