Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Question

I buy and sell a lot of trading cards; usually Magic: The Gathering, sometimes Pokemon or other games. These marketplaces rely strongly on reputation and references to ensure that one is buying from someone who isn't going to scam you.

This seems like a great subject for a prediction market! I will link this market to anyone who is uncertain of whether they can trust me with their money and/or valuable cards.

If you are one of those people and you're unfamiliar with what a prediction market is, it's a way for people to bet on the outcome of any question. The percentage that's displayed on this market is the likelyhood that I can be trusted. If anyone disagrees and thinks I can't be trusted, they can bet against me, and they'll make money if they're right.

The specific resolution criteria of this market are: If before the end of 2029 I am credibly accused of a serious theft or scam, this market resolves to NO. Otherwise it resolves to YES at the beginning of 2030.

For an accusation to count as "credible" it does not need to be proven true, but it needs to come with substantial evidence and convince a significant fraction of people who once trusted me that they should trust me less in the future. The alleged action does not need to be illegal, it only needs to be strongly and clearly immoral, and involve taking money or other items of value that should rightfully belong to someone else. In the event of a disagreement on how this market should be resolved, I will defer to a poll of Manifold users and my Facebook friends.

Given the inherrent resolution risk in a market like this, I would appreciate it if some other trustworthy market creators on Manifold were to make a market on whether I will resolve this market correctly.

There are two so far, which can be found here and here. If you think I shouldn't be trusted, go make some free money by betting against me over in those markets. :)

In order to have everything convieniently in one place, here's some other evidence in favor of my trustworthyness:

My reference thread in the High End Magic group.

My reference thread in the Sick Deals group.

My reference thread in the old misprint group

I'm an admin of the new misprint group, which has over 10,000 members.

I put hundreds of hours and dollars into community projects that do not benefit me personally, such as RulesGuru and Outside the Asylum. If I were to scam someone, I would no longer be welcome in the community.

My partner is also a Magic judge with her own business. If I were to scam someone, she would likely sustain considerable damage to her own reputation and employment prospects unless she broke up with me and denounced my actions.

I own upwards of $100,000 of rare Magic misprints. Many of these misprints and test prints can easily be faked, and buyers are only interested in them if they trust the seller. If I scammed someone, it would be much more difficult for me to ever sell those.

And in the interest of transparency, here's some evidence against my trustworthyness:

I don't care very much about social acceptance, and I sometimes do things that many other people believe are immoral. (e.g. this.)

As a teenager I stole some money and Magic cards from a friend of mine. (I have since apologized and returned them.)

Please feel free to put additional evidence in favor of either conclusion into the comments. (Which, notably, I cannot delete.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (21 traders, as of Aug 22, 2026).