If any market creators reach 500 resolutions by the end of 2023, will any of them have a perfect record?

Question

Resolves N/A if no one reaches 500 resolutions. Resolves to YES if at least one creator reached 500 resolutions and got none incorrect. Resolves to NO otherwise.

Subjective markets where some traders think it was resolved incorrectly but others disagree don't count; I'm only asking about ones that were clearly wrong, be it due to fraud or misclick.

I'll ignore anyone trying to game this market such as by writing a script to create and resolve 500 markets.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (16 traders, as of Dec 30, 2024).