Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Question

This market resolves once there's a large body of research comparing large real-money prediction markets to opinion polls, including both short and long term predictions across a broad spread of topics. If there's a strong consensus among the scientific/economic discipline at that time, this market resolves to that consensus. Otherwise it remains open until such a consensus exists.

(Outcomes on which prediction markets are known to have a structural bias towards inaccuracy, such as the demise of the prediction market platform itself, are ignored.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (10 traders, as of Jan 28, 2026).