Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Question

AI doctor:

Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.

Covers >50% of typical primary care volume.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (39 traders, as of Sep 13, 2026).