What will be the next UN Member state?

Question

This will be the next country to join the United Nations as a member state (Not an observer). If multiple countries join at the exact same time, I will resolve {1/n, …} Jul 2, 8:57am: Also, if there isn’t a new member by 2030, it will resolve to “no new members.”

Aug 16, 8:21am: If a country leaves and rejoins, that counts too.

Sep 12, 8:41pm: “None” will be chosen instead of “no new members” as nobody has bet on that option. Please ignore that option.

Sep 13, 11:10am: “None” has been removed as a feature. “No new members” will be chosen again.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No new members, followed by Bougainville and Catalonia are most likely. See the market for live updates (36 traders, as of Oct 16, 2026).