On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Question

Tracking external bet: https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/

This will resolve according to that site, whatever the conditions and caveats they have agreed on.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 94% chance (47 traders, as of Sep 23, 2026).