Is Attention All You Need?

Question

This market will resolve according to the website below:
https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/

Proposition:

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmarked tasks in natural language processing.

For the Motion

Jonathan Frankle
@jefrankle
Harvard Professor
Chief Scientist Mosaic ML

[image]Against the Motion

Sasha Rush
@srush_nlp
Cornell Professor
Research Scientist Hugging Face 🤗

[image]Context

Coming soon

Similar market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/on-january-1-2027-a-transformerlike-d56426e3f49e)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (63 traders, as of Nov 5, 2026).