Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Question

Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945

Sep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 36% chance (102 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).