Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?

Question

Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

ChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.

Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.

Update 2026-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve using the monthly time series from the linked Statcounter site.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (66 traders, as of Oct 26, 2026).