Will Germany recognize Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?

Question

Today, May 28, 2024, Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine.

Will Germany do the same within two years?

Resolution Criteria

1.	Definition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state.

2.	Source: Confirmation through credible sources such as official German government statements, major news outlets, or international diplomatic records.

3.	Timing: Recognition must occur before May 29, 2026, German time.

Similar market

(https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-germany-recognize-the-state-of)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (43 traders, as of Dec 21, 2025).