Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?

Question

Some political commentators have expressed the possibility of a military coup, if Donald Trump is elected in 2024. Will one occur?

The coup does not need to be successful, it just needs to have military support and be significant enough that multiple major news sources (eg. CNN, Fox, NYT) have reported on it and referred to it as a coup or similar.

This market does not need Donald Trump to have been elected.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (31 traders, as of Oct 12, 2026).