If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

Question

Which of Donald Trump's campaign promises will he actually achieve?

All options are taken from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues or https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act

Resolves YES for any items that have been achieved by the end of his presidency. They have to actually have been achieved (for example, a bill has passed to ban trans women from participating in women's sports, a constitutional amendment has been passed), though it doesn't have to be the most complete version, just enough that it's reasonable to say that it has been achieved (for example, trans women could be banned at the high school level but not college level). He doesn't have to have directly caused it to happen, it just has to have happened. They do have to have occurred nationwide however (so individual states banning trans women would not count without a nationwide ban).

If any promise was debatably already true (for example, ending COVID mandates), he must take some action to go further.

For many of these, it will ultimately wind up being somewhat subjective, but I will do my best to be impartial and defer to consensus opinion, and I will not hold any positions in this market. If any are too ambiguous, I reserve the right to resolve N/A.

All options resolve N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024.

For some positions that are not objective on Trump's campaign website, I will provide a specific definition below. For items that are based on a given date, I will as close as possible compare December 31, 2024 with December 31, 2028, or compare December 2024 with December 2028. For items based on a quarter, I will compare Q4 2024 with Q4 2028. For items that are based on a given year or fiscal year, I will compare 2024 with 2028.

"lower taxes"

Compare the total federal revenue in each year, adjusted for GDP. This is not precisely the same as taxes, but it's almost entirely taxes and other forms of fees are in some way equivalent to taxes

"bigger paychecks"

Compare the "Annual Wages per Employee" in each quarter, adjusted for inflation

"more jobs for American workers"

The nonfarm payroll employment in the US is higher than at the start of the term.

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

Compare the national average price of gasoline and diesel at the pump, and Henry Hub Natural Gas spot price. All three must be lower.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, "lower taxes", followed by "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud" and "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals" are most likely. See the market for live updates (92 traders, as of May 22, 2026).