Will peak oil demand happens before 2028?

Question

If in the years 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 an 2033 the demand for oil don't surpass the peak register in years before 2028, the market resolves YES, otherwise resolves NO.

Context:

[image]https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1616137013123776512?t=XHE4g2PViWydffIUFNsY2w&s=19

Jan 19, 11:04pm: Will Peak oil demand happens within the before 2028? → Will peak oil demand happens before 2028?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (28 traders, as of Jan 22, 2026).