Unlisted profits experiment (market 2 of 2). Possibly free money

Question

This market resolves to the opposite of the linked market. I will unlist the market that resolves NO and leave the market that resolves YES listed.

https://manifold.markets/Fion/unlisted-profits-experiment-market

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Fion/unlisted-profits-experiment-market)If you care about listed and unlisted profits equally, then you should arbitrage these markets so the probabilities add up to 100% (realistically you should probably buy them both to 50% since you don't know which way it's going to go, but if you feel like taking a gamble be my guest).

If, however, you care more about listed profits, you should buy YES (probably in both markets as above).

For example, suppose both markets were at 60% (and liquid enough that you're not going to move them), if you bought 60M YES in each market, you'd have 100 YES shares in each market. You would be guaranteed a payout of exactly 100M of listed profits, but you would have spent 120M to obtain it. So your listed profit is +40M and your total profit is -20M. Is that worth it for you? Alternatively you could buy 40M of NO in each market, and be guaranteed 100M payouts for 80M spent. Your listed profits would be -40M and your total profit would be +20M. Is that worth it for you?

This market design was inspired by the following markets:

https://manifold.markets/A/how-valuable-are-listed-profits-com

https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/this-market-resolves-to-the-opposit-e969947a2967

The difference is that this design has much less randomness than the previous ones. You know that one market will resolve YES and the other will resolve NO, and you know that the one resolving NO will be unlisted. If you bet the same thing on both markets, you know what your payout will be and how much of it will be listed. For this reason I hope it will be a more accurate indication of how much people value listed vs unlisted profits.

I may choose to trade in these markets.

If something changes that prevents me from listing/unlisting the markets as described here (e.g. a request from admins) I will resolve both markets N/A.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jun 12, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.