Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?

Question

Peace before 2027. There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen.

This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:

[markets]Previously:

@/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2025-nobel-peace

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No peace, no Nobel, followed by Peace but no Nobel and Peace and Nobel are most likely. See the market for live updates (51 traders, as of Jul 20, 2026).