Will Maduro remain president of Venezuela through 2026?

Question

For the entire year, local time.

Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait before resolving while the situation remains contested, rather than resolving immediately based on current events.

Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering using Wikipedia consensus across articles or a formal action by the Venezuelan government as resolution criteria. The creator will wait longer before resolving rather than making an immediate determination based on current events.

Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is leaning towards resolving based on:

Whether the people with de facto power in Venezuela still say Maduro is President

How major news sources, including Wikipedia, report the situation

The creator acknowledges the question says "remain President" (not "remain in power") but notes the original question did not distinguish between de facto vs de jure presidency. The creator tends towards a literal interpretation where possible, but recognizes this situation was not anticipated when writing the question.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (99 traders, as of Jul 16, 2026).