1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Question

Total solar power available, across all satellites from all operators. Nameplate capacity, not actual usage.

Based on industry reports and my best efforts at research; suggestions for reliable sources are welcome, hopefully there will be a clean resolution source we can track well before resolution time. Presumably some classified satellites will be hard to get data on; best guesses will be used if they matter.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (33 traders, as of Sep 6, 2026).