San Francisco gets some kind of congestion zone pricing system by mid 2030

Question

ways this can YES:

it's already implemented and in effect, for at least a month, with no set plans to remove it.  ballot measures to change/remove/delete it are allowed to be happening in the future, as long as the de facto state of the existing plan is happening and hasn't got an end date

OR if at claim end there is an an implementation plan approved as much as possible at the time, with a fixed day, date and year for it to go into effect, confirmed prices, and be fully on schedule to actually happen at that date, which also must be within 1 year of close, that can YES too

Otherwise NO

The plan must have a large area (at least 20% of the SF metropolitan area) which uses a monetary price or proxy for it to charge extra for people driving into/in the area. It must be actually happening at least 4 days a week for at least 8 hours (or equivalent in hours/week).

Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

The 20% area requirement refers to the city proper of San Francisco, not the entire metropolitan area.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (35 traders, as of May 4, 2026).