Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Question

Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in every human dying by Jan 1st, 2030?

Due to M$ not being worth anything if the world ends, people have an incentive to bet "NO" on questions about AI killing everyone even if they believe the correct answer is probably YES.  Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.  All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.  However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them.

In principle there's still a distortionary effect if mana is worth less to you in 2026 within worlds that end by 2030.  But since M$ are in any event only useful for charity (including charity that could try for last-ditch efforts to save us in doomed timelines) and not for personal partying in any timeline, the distortion should be less.  I'm sure people will come up with galaxy-brained reasons not to bet their true beliefs in this market too, including trolls who come up with elaborate arguments for that in the comments just to be trolls; but the actual incentive distortion should be less.

The intent of this market is that the semantic question for people to bet their beliefs on, is about AI progress causally resulting in literally every human dying by 2030.  I don't think it's particularly likely that this would happen by accident, or by the deliberate choice of humans staying in control; but eg terrorists purposefully using LLAMA 4 to build a supervirus would count if the last survivors died by Jan 1st, 2030.

Related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (337 traders, as of Oct 22, 2026).