Will 5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from 2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 individual recipients of an FTX-originating grant that went through a legal charity along the way, more than 5% of the money received; including but not limited to FTX Foundation, FTX Philanthropy, FTX Future Fund, "North Dimension" under Alameda, the FTX Future Fund regranting program, etcetera.

(This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%"; i.e., to measure the probability of a scenario that would pose strong danger to a lot of individual people who did work under FTX grants.  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)

Added:  Per original title, "individual" means "individual human worker".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (159 traders, as of Aug 7, 2026).