If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Question

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence with user-submitted answers.  An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs., followed by AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled. and A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough are most likely. See the market for live updates (559 traders, as of Aug 14, 2026).