and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):

1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.

2. A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.

3. A direct armed engagement between the US and Cuban militaries

Must be confirmed by a reputable news outlet (AP, Reuters)

1. US Coast Guard or law-enforcement actions against drug boats do NOT count.

2. Fatalities caused by law enforcement or anti-drug operations in international waters do NOT count.

Cuba, like Venezuela, frequently claims that USCG attacks are “acts of war” — but this market will not count this.

3. Covert operations that remain unconfirmed do NOT count.

If something is suspected to be CIA/JSOC but not confirmed, it doesn’t qualify.

4. Ambiguous-location incidents do NOT count.

5. Activity involving only militias, smugglers, or nonstate actors does NOT count.

Even if US forces kill Cuban nationals, unless 