Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?

Question

Resolution criteria

YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):

1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.

Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).

Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.

2. A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.

Does not need to target military facilities.

Civilian infrastructure counts if the attacker is state military.

3. A direct armed engagement between the US and Cuban militaries

This counts regardless of location, including:

Shots fired between naval vessels

Intentional ramming

Air-to-air engagement

Missile launch targeting a military asset

A Cuban military aircraft shot down by the US (or vice versa)

4. Covert actions by CIA or DI

Assasinations

Sabotage missions

Must be confirmed by a reputable news outlet (AP, Reuters)

WHAT DOES NOT COUNT

❌1. US Coast Guard or law-enforcement actions against drug boats do NOT count.

Even if 10+ people die

Even if it happens in the Caribbean

Even if the victims are Cuban nationals

Unless Cuban military assets are directly involved

❌ 2. Fatalities caused by law enforcement or anti-drug operations in international waters do NOT count.

Cuba, like Venezuela, frequently claims that USCG attacks are “acts of war” — but this market will not count this.

❌ 3. Covert operations that remain unconfirmed do NOT count.

If something is suspected to be CIA/JSOC but not confirmed, it doesn’t qualify.

❌ 4. Ambiguous-location incidents do NOT count.

Location must be clearly established to avoid disputes.

❌ 5. Activity involving only militias, smugglers, or nonstate actors does NOT count.

Even if US forces kill Cuban nationals, unless Cuban state military is involved, it doesn't qualify.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 73% chance (28 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).