Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?

Question

The CEO of the Atlantic claimed in a recent article that "Insider Trading Is Going to Get People Killed". Will it?

[tweet]Resolution Criteria

The "Other" category covers any unspecified harms aside from legal, PR or related troubles suffered by the insider trader, prediction market or other predictors.

Examples: a genuine PR challenge for an organization or person associated with the insider due to the information released, early leakage of contest results (such as at the Emmys, before the announcement on stage), and so on.

Any event reported on in the major news media which offers reasonable justification that insider trading was causally implicated in deaths, injuries or other harms is sufficient. This market does not qualify!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other harms, followed by Injuries that don't result in deaths and At least one death are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Apr 28, 2026).