Will Kīlauea volcano produce a lava fountain episode (Episode 43) before April 1st, 2026?

Question

Visit magma.market for live feeds and USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Data.

Kīlauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024. Episode 42 ended February 15. USGS models forecast Episode 43 onset during March 10–16. This market resolves YES if USGS confirms Episode 43 begins before April 1st, 2026 (HST). Resolves NO if the month of March ends without fountaining.

Resolution source: USGS HVO daily updates — usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updates

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 31, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.