Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?

Question

Criteria

Must be classified as a new species, previously unknown

Must be found outside of earth (but can originate from earth)

Must be capable of making a person sick and killing them

I'll resolve when the first death occurs, or if the disease is eliminated I'll assess whether it could plausibly kill a typical 80 year old.

I may change the criteria in response to good suggestions.

I will not trade on this market.

More people means more evolution:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/mars-population-in-2100)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (9 traders, as of Apr 23, 2024).