When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Question

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date on this Wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_(2022%E2%80%93present)

I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period.

If the article is renamed, split or merged I will update the link above to the closest equivalent article.

I will resolve in line with the Wikipedia editors unless it's clear that this is not in line with the "spirit" of the question.

The spirit of the question is about when the armed conflict substantially stops regardless of who controls what territory. A temporary ceasefire does not count.

[image]I may change the criteria to clarify questions or fix flaws.

I will not bet in this market.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-2023-israel-hamas-war)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-2023-israelhamas-war)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030+, followed by 2027 and 2028 are most likely. See the market for live updates (244 traders, as of May 8, 2026).