[ACX 2026] Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?

Question

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41090)
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.

Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2026 FIFA World Cup is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (36 traders, as of May 7, 2026).