Will the wild population of the Azure-thighed Tree Frog (Litoria azuroscelis) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Azure-thighed Tree Frog, a newly discovered species that is Not Evaluated on the IUCN Red List. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Azure-thighed Tree Frog persists.

For more information about the species, see:

Wikipedia

For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-azurethighed-tree-frog-lit?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (3 traders, as of Jun 14, 2025).