Will the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Vaquita is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaquita

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/17028/214541137

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-vaq?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (16 traders, as of Dec 8, 2025).