Will the Sulawesi Cardinal Shrimp (Caridina dennerli) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the Sulawesi Cardinal Shrimp, a species that was classified as Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild) on the IUCN Red List in 2018. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the Sulawesi Cardinal Shrimp persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-sul?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 48% chance (3 traders, as of Jun 14, 2025).