Will the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis) become extinct in the current century?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Komodo Dragon is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komodo_dragon

IUCN red list of threatened species:

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22884/123633058

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species, excluding captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-kom)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (6 traders, as of Nov 9, 2025).