This market focuses on the extinction risk of the Cozumel Thrasher, a bird species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive individuals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the Cozumel Thrasher persists.

For more information about the species, see:

For comparison, here the market for the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals: