Their overall 2021 acceptance rate was 59.7%. CollegeVine (after I inputted various relevant info about me) puts my chances at 88%, categorizing it as a "safety". But given the trend of colleges yield-protecting, does Manifold really believe CollegeVine? 

I probably will apply to UIUC, but if I don't, I will resolve PROB to the current market probability at the time I definitively decide. (I've chosen this option instead of N/A because this market's percentage being lower might slightly decrease my chance of applying, which could distort the percentage.) In a scenario where I get waitlisted but take my name off the waitlist, the market will also resolve PROB.

I've been hesitant to make markets about my college applications for privacy reasons, but I'm pretty curious where this one will end up at, so...

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.