Will MANIFOLD PROJECTIONS, the Manifold Markets Decision Desk, project a race incorrectly, EXCLUDING TYPOS?

Question

Planning to make official projections on Twitter at a 98% confidence level. I will be in charge, but other Manifold traders such as @Gabrielle have been invited to help! (You can too - @ me when you think a call is in order!) We will be using the following proxies:

manifold and/or polymarket at 98% or higher and it’s not a fluke

major network calls it

Dave Wasserman has seen enough

strong sentiment from a group of people on election twitter (Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, etc)

strong belief from the decision desk team for other reasons

The current plan is to do all the states for president, all the Senate races, and the overall presidency/Senate/House.

The goal is to be faster than major news networks without getting projections wrong. But if one of them was wrong, that would be okay.

Note: If we are initially 98% confident in a race, then our confidence drops below ~90%, we will retract the projection. If we retract the projection and then re-project it for the same candidate, that would not cause a YES resolution to this market. The projection must be actively wrong.

[Note: A prior version of this market will likely resolve yes due to a typo that caused us to project ME-2 instead of ME-1. For this market, a "typo" projection doesn't count. I must have intended to project that race.]

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Dec 24, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.