North Carolina as top-5 likely tipping point state

'-5':5 'carolina':2 'like':6 'north':1 'point':8 'state':9 'tip':7 'top':4

>25% that a candidate wins at least 350 electoral votes

'25':1 '350':8 'candid':4 'elector':9 'least':7 'vote':10 'win':5

 models have produced some weird outputs that don't gibe with conventional wisdom. When Nate Silver releases his model soon (it'll be behind a paywall, but I'm a subscriber so I'll be able to see it), will any of them be corroborated?

NOTE: If the election changes substantially between now and the Silver model release, such that Manifold's chances of one or more of these things spikes to the point where it is the conventional wisdom, I may N/A the answer at my discretion.

I will resolve to a probability if one of these things is not a direct output of the Silver model, based on my best probability estimate of what it would say.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.