Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?

Question

This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany:

Thuringia

SPD 296.446

AfD 303.233

Saxony-Anhalt

SPD 305.085

AfD 235.492

Saxony

SPD 474.804

AfD 607.044

Berlin

SPD 428.289

AfD 153.694

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

SPD 267.368

AfD 165.342

Brandenburg

SPD 450.573

AfD 277.412

Adds up to:

SPD 2.222.565

AfD 1.742.217

Resolves to "No", if another party has more secondary votes than the AfD.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 24, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.