Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Question

As of November 2023, I'd say the top 3 are OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google (I'm sympathetic a case could be made for Meta).

Appreciate EU is not a country, but I think it's useful to track in the aggregate anyway :) - feel free to add individual EU countries, or to ask if you can add other useful groupings (I might N/A groupings I don't consider that useful if things get out of hand).

For simplicity, I'll focus on the country of the lab or its parent organization (at the moment, that means I'd count Google as 100% US, rather than viewing Google DeepMind as a UK lab).

I'll look to exit the market in the months prior to resolving, to reduce COI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, US, followed by China and UK are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).