This market resolves YES if by January 1, 2025, the most popular chatbot creates "thoughts" when given difficult prompts, a la Chain-of-Thought. The thoughts must be separate from its final response.

By "thoughts," I mean data that the chatbot creates and maintains primarily for the purpose of improving its own responses, created and used across multiple forward passes, which occur after the entire prompt is provided to the model but before it starts writing a response. The thoughts must reason about how to solve the problem; for instance, it would not count if the model is simply prompted to "write a query to a search engine that will help answer this prompt."

The chatbot's thoughts should be separate from the "primary output" of the model; however, it's acceptable if the thoughts are viewable by clicking a button in the UI after the primary output has been presented. The thoughts can be human-interpretable or not (bet on which one in the companion market below).

Specifically, I will resolve YES if I believe that the top LLM "thinks" before answering at least 3 of the following 5 prompts:

Companion market on whether these thoughts will be human-interpretable: