Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?

Question

The ALP leader has historically always been a serving member of the House of Representatives.

This market will only resolve to named individual people.

This market will not resolve to an acting leader, unless they become the permanent leader.

If no change of leadership occurs by the closing date, it will be extended.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Jim Chalmers, followed by Other and Tanya Plibersek are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Jan 12, 2026).