Will JD Vance become President before January 20, 2029?

Question

This market resolves YES if JD Vance becomes President of the United States at any point between now and January 19, 2029 (before Trump's second term ends). CONTEXT: The 22nd Amendment creates an interesting incentive: if Vance becomes president AFTER January 20, 2027 (the midpoint of Trump's term), he could potentially serve up to 10 years total as president (remainder of Trump's term + two full elected terms). If he becomes president BEFORE that date, he can only serve one additional elected term. RESOLVES YES IF: - Vance assumes the presidency via 25th Amendment (voluntary or involuntary) - Trump resigns and Vance succeeds him - Trump dies and Vance succeeds him - Any other scenario where Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 RESOLVES NO IF: - Trump completes his full second term - Someone other than Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 Resolution date: January 20, 2029 (or earlier if YES)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (11 traders, as of Oct 12, 2026).