Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Apple announces a foldable, pocketable, SIM/eSIM-enabled device that is explicitly positioned as a primary mobile phone and is not branded under the iPhone name, regardless of whether it is intended to replace the iPhone in practice.

The announcement must be confirmed by:

an official Apple press release or statement (e.g., Apple Newsroom or Investor Relations), or

reporting by a highly credible financial news outlet (Bloomberg, Reuters, or Associated Press) confirming that such a product has been announced.

This market resolves NO if any of the following occur:

Apple announces a foldable phone branded as an iPhone

Apple announces no foldable phone at all by the end of 2026

Apple announces only a foldable tablet, laptop, wearable, or companion device

Clarifications / explicit exclusions

The following do NOT resolve this market as YES:

A foldable iPad (even with cellular connectivity, phone calling, or eSIM)

A foldable MacBook or other computer

A foldable device framed as secondary, companion, or accessory hardware

A teaser, hint, or rumor without a clear affirmative product announcement is not sufficient to resolve YES.

Update 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mutual exclusivity with companion market:

A companion market exists asking whether Apple announces a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026

Only one of these two markets can resolve YES

If Apple announces a foldable device framed as part of the iPhone product line or as a successor/replacement for the iPhone, the companion market resolves YES and this market resolves NO

If Apple announces no foldable phone by the end of 2026, both markets resolve NO

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (10 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).