Which of these countries will join the EU before 2030?

Question

I will resolve individual countries to YES when they join the EU if they do so at any point before 2030. Leaving the EU after joining it will not affect the YES resolution. Any countries that haven't joined the EU by January 1st, 2030 will be resolved to NO at that point.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/BradleyHe/will-any-new-countries-join-the-eu)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Montenegro, followed by North Macedonia and Ukraine are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Jul 6, 2026).