Marginal weather in the tipping point state

Question

This market asks two questions: What the Republican/Democrat margin of victory will be in the tipping point state for the 2028 US POTUS election, and whether the weather will be wet in the state on election day.

The criteria for what counts as rainy weather will be:

Look at the top 5 cities in the state by population

Check if it precipitated in those cities according to the citywide weather icon for election day on Weather Underground

Is the answer is "yes" for most of the people in those cities?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin, followed by Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin and Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Mar 18, 2026).