Will monkeypox appear to be a seasonal illness, with more occurrence in summer than winter, by the end of 2024?

Question

At the end of 2024 I will look over monkeypox data released by CDC for the two preceding years (Jan. 2023-Dec. 2024).

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

If there are noticeably more cases in the warm summer months (May-Sept.) than the cold winter months (Nov.-March), this resolves YES; otherwise, NO.

If data are not available for those two years, this resolves N/A.

If comparable data are available from other rich Western countries with good record-keeping, I may take those into account as well.

I'm being deliberately vague about the precise definition of "noticeably more".  I'm looking for more than mere statistical significance; I'm looking for a trend so obvious that you can clearly see it from the numbers.  If this becomes contentious, I'd be open to discussion

Update Jan 2023:  If the outbreak ends worldwide, then this resolves NO.

If there are no cases in rich Western countries but there are cases elsewhere, I will resolve on the best available data.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jul 6, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.